Like last year, I calculated the average odds per seed level. This year, all the 14th through 16th seeds are combined as a field entry, with a payout of 50-1. You may think that is a great deal. If you do, maybe you could send me your money and perhaps I could pay 60-1, LOL. In other words, there are only two chances a 14th seed or worse will win the NCAA tournament - fat and slim. The 13th seeds had two teams with posted odds and two teams in the field category, so their average odds are lower than you would expect. No matter. 13th seeds aren't likely to win the NCAA tournament either.
Here are the average odds per seed level:
1 - 4.75
2 - 15
3 - 43.75
4 - 53.75
5 - 76.25
6 - 83.75
7 - 175
8 - 175
9 - 175
10 - 175
11 - 250
12 - 287.5
13 - 175
14 - 50
15 - 50
16 - 50
I looked for teams at a particular seed level that had posted odds 50% higher than the seed average. I found a few, mostly in the South bracket:
1 - Duke 8-1
7 - Richmond 300-1
8 - UNLV 300-1 (Go Rebels!)
10 - St. Marys (CA) 300-1
12 - Utah State 500-1
13 - Siena 300-1
13 - Murray St. 300-1
What I am going to do is make some hypothetical bets. I'll wager $100 that Duke wins the tournament and $50 each that the other teams each win their first game, with the exception of St. Marys. This is due to the fact that Richmond plays St. Marys in the first round. Since Richmond is a 7 seed, I'll go with Richmond. Are these good bets? Who knows but we'll see if the higher odds are an accurate portrayal of team strength, or reflect more of a bettor bias toward some teams with better name recognition. Duke has a great program, but I believe they are viewed weaker this year than Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse. However, it could be that Duke may have the easiest path to the Final Four.
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