Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Appeals Court Ruling Against New Jersey Shows Path To Sports Betting

The United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit yesterday ruled against New Jersey in its attempt to implement sports betting by a 2-1 decision.  The case is now clear for New Jersey to appeal to the US Supreme Court.  Although a defeat at this stage, New Jersey can actually see very good news.  For the first time, a judge did side with New Jersey and against the US and the sports leagues.  The dissenting judge put forward a very well reasoned dissent that picked apart the majority opinion and showed in detail how PASPA was unconstitutional.

New Jersey does have the option of asking for the full Third Circuit to hear the case.  The information I received is that it doesn't do much for New Jersey to do that.  The first thing is that the full court could side with the majority, which doesn't help.  The second thing is that the loser is going to go to the US Supreme Court anyway, so why not go there now and save time and money?  That appears to be the path New Jersey will take.

The opponents of sports betting will take this as a great victory - not so fast.  From the majority opinion, this sentiment I found interesting:
We are cognizant that certain questions related to this case—whether gambling on sporting events is harmful to the games’ integrity and whether states should be permitted to license and profit from the activity—engender strong views. But we are not asked to judge the wisdom of PASPA or of New Jersey’s law, or of the desirability of the activities they seek to regulate. We speak only to the legality of these measures as a matter of constitutional law. Although this “case is made difficult by [Appellants’] strong arguments” in support of New Jersey’s law as a policy matter, see Gonzales v. Raich, 545 U.S. 1, 9 (2005), our duty is to “say what the law is,” Marbury v. Madison, 1 Cranch 137, 177 (1803). “If two laws conflict with each other, the courts must decide on the operation of each.” Id. New Jersey’s sports wagering law conflicts with PASPA and, under our Constitution, must yield. We will affirm the District Court’s judgment.
So they pretty much put blinders on and crafted an affirming opinion based on a subset of the issues.  The court also just used the "rational basis" test and took only a cursory look at PASPA to find anything to say that PASPA was a regulation of interstate commerce, as opposed to Congress using a state as a puppet, which isn't allowed.  In other words, if Congress wanted to outlaw the sale of beef jerky, Congress can do that directly, but they cannot tell the states to pass laws to prohibit beef jerky or keep them from passing laws allowing beef jerky, while declining to do so themselves.  In the case of PASPA, they allow some states to have sports betting, but not others, which is even more strange.  They later in the opinion stated a very odd way of how a state could comply with PASPA:
Thus, under PASPA, on the one hand, a state may repeal its sports wagering ban, a move that will result in the expenditure of no resources or effort by any official. On the other hand, a state may choose to keep a complete ban on sports gambling, but it is left up to each state to decide how much of a law enforcement priority it wants to make of sports gambling, or what the exact contours of the prohibition will be.
We agree that these are not easy choices. And it is perhaps true (although there is no textual or other support for the idea) that Congress may have suspected that most states would choose to keep an actual prohibition on sports gambling on the books, rather than permit that activity to go on unregulated. But the fact that Congress gave the states a hard or tempting choice does not mean that they were given no choice at all, or that the choices are otherwise unconstitutional. See United States v. Martinez-Salazar, 528 U.S. 304, 315 (2000) (“A hard choice is not the same as no choice.”); see also F.E.R.C., 456 U.S. at 766 (upholding a choice between expending state resources to consider federal standards or abandoning field to federal regulation).
What does this mean?  The court is saying that New Jersey does not run afoul of PASPA if they ban sports betting or they totally deregulate sports betting.  So, in theory, New Jersey could simply allow sports betting with no regulation or oversight whatsoever and the US Government, sports leagues and NCAA couldn't do a thing about it.  That logic is insane and was properly called out in the dissenting opinion.

The opening of the dissent is well written and sums up what I believe the essence of New Jersey's appeal to the US Supreme Court will be:
I agree with my colleagues that the Leagues have standing to challenge New Jersey’s Sports Wagering Law, N.J. Stat. Ann. § 5:12A-2, and that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (“PASPA”), 28 U.S.C. § 3702, does not violate the principle of “equal sovereignty.” I therefore join parts III and IV.C of the majority’s decision in full. I also agree that, ordinarily, Congress has the authority to regulate gambling pursuant to the Commerce Clause, and thus I join part IV.A of the majority opinion as well. Yet, PASPA is no ordinary federal statute that directly regulates interstate commerce or activities substantially affecting such commerce. Instead, PASPA prohibits states from authorizing sports gambling and thereby directs how states must treat such activity. Indeed, according to my colleagues, PASPA essentially gives the states the choice of allowing totally unregulated betting on sporting events or prohibiting all such gambling. Because this congressional directive violates the principles of federalism as articulated by the Supreme Court in United States v. New York, 505 U.S. 142 (1992), and Printz v. United States, 521 U.S. 898 (1997), I respectfully dissent from that part of the majority’s opinion that upholds PASPA as a constitutional exercise of congressional authority.
This case isn't over and it is my view that the Supreme Court will take it up.  How it turns out is a matter of debate, but my view is that New Jersey should prevail.  It should be noted that a recent statistic indicated that 60% of the rulings from the Third Circuit Court of Appeals are reversed by the Supreme Court.  I think yesterday's ruling overall wasn't too bad at all for New Jersey and those wanting expanded legal sports betting in the USA.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

2013 NFL Draft Pari-Mutuel Fantasy Sports Game Results

To continue the early testing of the totally new pari-mutuel fantasy sports game website, ProContest.com, a free play game based on the NFL draft was offered.  Crafting a bona fide fantasy sports game around the NFL draft is a completely new concept, never before seen.  This game has great potential with regard to monetizing this huge event that attracts approximately 25 million viewers each year.  This game was alluded to during the reporting of the Week 17 results at the end of last year's regular season in this post.

The four races that constituted the NFL Draft game were:
  1. Position Most Selected Rounds 1-4
  2. Position Most Selected Rounds 5-7
  3. Conference Most Selected Rounds 1-4
  4. Conference Most Selected Rounds 5-7
Here are the results for the various game elements along with their final odds to Win as determined by contest entrants:

Position Most Selected Rounds 1-4
Win    Other/Field / 14:1
Place  Cornerback / 28:1
Show  Defensive End / 4:1
Favorite:  Defensive End at 4:1

Position Most Selected Rounds 5-7
Win    Offensive Line (Any) / 5:1
Place  Running Back (Any) / 7:1
Show  Other/Field / 9:1
Favorite:  Offensive Line (Any) and Wide Receiver at 5:1

Conference Most Selected Rounds 1-4
Win    SEC / 4:1
Place  Other/Field / 11:1
Show  Pac 12 / 23:1
Favorite:  SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 at 4:1

Conference Most Selected Rounds 5-7
Win    Other/Field / 10:1
Place  SEC / 7:1
Show  ACC / 10:1
Favorite:  Big 10 and Big 12 at 5:1

For the early round position race, the favorite Defensive Ends did finish in the money, just a whisker behind the second place finisher Cornerback.  The Cornerback position was a longshot at 28:1 and came in second.  The Other/Field entry was at 14:1 but did come in first by a wide margin.

For the late round position race, the favorite Offensive Line (Any) did win but the other favorite Wide Receiver finished out of the money.  The Runningback position at 7:1 placed and the Other/Field entry at 9:1 showed.  The finish order was fairly closely correlated to the final odds for this race, with the exception of the co-favorite Wide Receiver.

For the early round conference race, the favorite SEC did win and won convincingly.  The Other/Field entry placed just ahead of the Pac 12, which showed.  The Pac 12 was a longshot in this race at 23:1 but came in third and just missed a second place finish.

For the late round conference race, both favorites Big 10 and Big 12 finished out of the money.  The second favorite SEC placed, but the Other/Field entry, at a reasonable 10:1 won.  Rounding out the in the money finishers, the ACC also going off at 10:1 showed.  This might have been reasonably expected as the big conferences should do well in early rounds with minor conferences or Division II or III players potentially being selected late, making the Field/Other entry more attractive.

Overall, the NFL Draft pari-mutuel game performed well with regard to game mechanics.  It definitely is an option to be offered as a pay-to-play prize awarding game in the future.  We're initially thinking of an entry fee in the $5 range, with prize tiers (multiple winners per prize tier that vary based on total number of entries) in the range of $250/$50/$10.  This kind of high prize to entry fee ratio should be more attractive than that offered by those other "daily" fantasy sports sites.  Just think that perhaps next year, you can watch the NFL Draft and have the potential to win cash prizes!

Stay tuned to ProContest's blog for further developments on that, other games/sports, and general ProContest info.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

ProContest Creates New NFL Draft Fantasy Contest

ProContest continues its early stage testing of new fantasy sports contests.  The latest test is the creation of a totally new fantasy sports game for the upcoming 2013 NFL Draft.  Using pari-mutuel wagering principles, contest entrants can predict what positions or college conferences will be selected most during this April's draft.

This totally new game further shows the breakthrough utility of the patented pari-mutuel fantasy sports concept.  This game is a free play/no prize game as the intent, as with the other early games, is to check the game logic and play functionality.

The NFL Draft is now a very big television event, with approximately 25 million tuning in to watch.  The first three rounds are broadcast live in primetime, with rounds 4 through 7 occurring on Saturday.

For those that will be unable to register on ProContest.com and play, here are the screen shots of the various questions (races) that contestants will input their predictions.  You will see that the screens have similar "wagering" data and odds displays to pari-mutuel tote boards at horse and dog tracks.  If you're familiar with pari-mutuel race wagering, ProContest's fantasy sports games should be a snap to play.









How the contestants will play the game is that they will select the question (race) and then input the number of bet points (virtual currency - no monetary value) in the yellow-shaded area to reflect their choices.  All entries start out with the same amount of virtual currency.  A person can enter the contest more than once, but the startingvirtual currency for each entry is the same.

You will see for Question 4, Conference Most Selected Rounds 5-7, that in early play, the SEC is the early favorite at 2 to 1 odds.  As more people make their selections, the Current Trend information will update and the odds (Win odds) will change accordingly.

The contestant's intent is to make the correct selections such that they will finish the contest with higher levels of virtual currency to qualify for the various prize tiers.  In these early test phases, the games are free play/no prize.  Ultimately, pay-to-play fantasy games with top prizes on the order of 50 to 100 times the entry fee are envisioned.  So for a game like this, an entry fee might be $5, but the prize levels might be on the order of $250, $50 and $5 for 1st, 2nd and 3rd Prize.

This game concept also allows more prize winners in that it is not just the top three finishers.  In these games, the prize levels are actually prize tiers, with the ability to award many prizes within a tier.  So, if in a game where 100 people enter, there might be 1 $250 1st Prize, 3 $50 2nd Prizes and 22 $5 3rd Prizes awarded.  But if in the same game, let's say actually 450 people enter.  In that case, there might be 2 $250 1st Prize, 13 $50 2nd Prizes and 99 $5 3rd Prizes awarded.  This is a big advantage over typical fantasy sports games in that many people can win valuable prizes, not just a few.  Also, with the high prize to entry fee ratio, even at low entry fee levels, nice prizes can be won.  The low entry fee allows contestants to make multiple entries to apply different strategies, such as all longshots, entering early to take advantage of any bonus virtual points, waiting until just before the game starts, etc.

ProContest's new approach could be the big innovation that the fantasy sports industry has been looking for.  For those interested, feel free to register at ProContest and try out the NFL Draft game.  The NFL Draft begins on April 25th.